With all top 5 banks now having released their 2012 half year
results, I did a review of their performance across different banking and business
indicators.
I also analysed their performance against the entire banking
industry’s Half Year performance
The total banking sector deposit accounts was 14,893,628 from
12.8 Million, a rise of 16.4%, with Equity Bank (Equity) having 7.8 Million
accounts, giving it a market share of 52.4%, up from 49% the previous year
Profitability
Standard Chartered (SCBK) leapt past Co-operative Bank
(Co-op) and Barclays (BBK) in the pre-tax profitability rankings. SCBK’s
profits soared 87.5% to Kshs. 6.5 Billion from Kshs. 3.47 Billion.
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) snatched top position from Equity
with an impressive 48% growth in pre-tax earnings to Kshs. 8.5 Billion.
Co-op was the least profitable among the top 5 banks with 5
Billion after profits rose 20.8% to Kshs. 5 Billion
Pre-tax profitability for the total banking industry for the
half year period to 30th June rose 30.4% to Kshs. 53.2 Billion
The Top 5 Listed Banks (Henceforth referred to as ‘The
Top 5’) though grew at a much faster pace than the industry as a whole.
Profitability grew 38% from Kshs. 24.6 Billion to Kshs. 33.95 Billion.
This figure represents 63.8% of all banking sector profits.
This is a rise from 60.28% in June 2011 and 56.6% as at June 2010. Such is the
dominance of The Top 5 that one is left wondering whether they will account for
two thirds of total banking sector profits but this time next year
Customer Deposits
Total banking deposit base increased by 18.6% to Kshs. 1.66
Trillion from Kshs. 1.4 Trillion
KCB with Kshs. 278.5 Billion remains well ahead of other
banks in Customer Deposits. Its deposits which grew also grew the fastest
(29.11%) among The Top 5, are double that of both Barclays and SCBK.
BBK’s customer deposits declined by nearly Kshs. 6 Billion or
4.6% to Kshs. 122.5 Billion from Kshs. 128.43 Billion. It is the second half in
a row that Barclays has reported a drop in deposits as they had a 1.6%
reduction for the period ending June 2011
Cumulatively, The Top 5 had deposits of Kshs. 836 Billion, up
from Kshs. 708 Billion. The Top 5’s market share however declined slightly to
50.4% from 50.6% of total banking sector deposits. The figure for H1 2010 was
51.4%
Net Loans and Advances
Barclays managed to grow their loan book by 10% which was an
improvement from the previous year’s flat growth. However, with a loan book of
Kshs. 101.1 Billion, they now possess the smallest loan book among the top 5 as
fellow multinational Stanchart grew advances 24.4% to Kshs. 104 Billion
KCB has a loan book of Kshs. 202 Billion, nearly Kshs. 80
Billion more than Equity which grew advances to Kshs. 124.5 Billion, a rise of
27.4% from the previous year
Overall, the loan book of The Top 5 grew by 100 Billion to Kshs.
644 Billion.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis shows that the 2nd
Quarter the tough macro-economic environment had started taking its toll on the
banks with only single digit growth in net loans and advances. The Top 5 as a
whole grew the loan book by 2.8% in Q2 2012 from Q1 2012
|
LOAN BOOK
Q1 2012
Kshs.
|
LOAN BOOK Q2 2012
Kshs.
|
% CHANGE
|
KENYA COMMERCIAL BANK GROUP
|
195.3 BILLION
|
202 BILLION
|
+3.5%
|
EQUITY BANK
GROUP
|
121.1 BILLION
|
124.5 BILLION
|
+2.8%
|
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK OF
KENYA
|
96.5 BILLION
|
104.1 BILLION
|
+7.8%
|
BARCLAYS BANK OF KENYA
|
100.3 BILLION
|
101.1 BILLION
|
+0.8%
|
THE CO-OPERATIVE BANK OF KENYA
|
113.6 BILLION
|
112.6 BILLION
|
-0.9%
|
Quality of The Loan Book
Net non-performing loans (NNPL) for The Top 5 went down by 3%
to 10.8 Billion.
The quality of the loan book, measured as a proportion of net
non performing loans to net loans and advances, improved to 1.67% from 2.04%. As
at June 2010, net non-performing loans consisted of 3.15% of the loan book.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) registered the first Credit
Referencing Bureau (CRB) in Kenya, CRB Africa in February 2010 in order for
financial institutions to share credit history. A second CRB, Metropol CRB was
registered in April 2011
|
NNPL/NET LOANS
H1 2011
|
NNPL/NET LOANS
H1 2012
|
KENYA COMMERCIAL BANK GROUP
|
3.5%
|
2.47%
|
EQUITY BANK
GROUP
|
2.02%
|
0.86%
|
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK OF
KENYA
|
0.883%
|
1.53%
|
BARCLAYS BANK OF KENYA
|
0.879%
|
0.96%
|
THE CO-OPERATIVE BANK OF KENYA
|
1.53%
|
1.91%
|
Balance Sheet
Top 5 total assets sailed past the trillion shilling mark to
stand at Kshs. 1.1 Trillion, up 16.7% from the previous year, keeping up pace
with the entire banking sector which grew 15.8% to Kshs. 2.2 Trillion from
Kshs. 1.9 Trillion.
KCB, with an asset base of nearly Kshs. 350 Billion, comes
out top
BBK’s total assets decreased by 4.5% to Kshs. 168.9 Billion
SCBK, Co-op, and Equity saw their total assets increase by 22.8%,
7.8%, and 28.3% to Kshs. 188 Billion, Kshs. 177 Billion and Kshs. 220 Billion
respectively
The Top 5 have
maintained their 50% holding total banking sector assets
Subsidiaries
All of KCB’s regional units with the exception of Burundi
(opened on 8th May 2012 and expected to break even in 2 years) have
broken even. KCB’s operations outside Kenya contributed Kshs. 628 Million in
pre-tax profits, nearly double the Kshs. 320 Million they made the previous
years.
Equity’s subsidiaries made 741 Million in profits compared to
Kshs. 628 Million the previous year. Equity commenced operations in Rwanda in
October 2011 and now has 8 Branches (KCB - 10). In February of this year, the
bank opened a Tanzanian subsidiary. They now have 4 branches in the country
(KCB - 11)
Meanwhile, the likes of Kingdom Securities, Co-op Trust
Investment Services and Co-op Consultancy Limited contributed Kshs. 134 Million
to Co-op’s profits, down from Kshs. 153 Million over the corresponding period
last year. Co-op has recently launched a bank in South Sudan
Interest Expenses
The half saw a very significant increase in the cost of funds
as aggregate interest expenses for The Top 5 catapulted by 332% as banks
clamoured for deposits during a high inflation period.
The rise was much higher than the increase in Total Interest
Income which rose by 72%. Interest expenses rose by at least 300% in 4 of the 5
banks with KCB seeing a 400% rise. Equity’s interest expenses rose at the
slowest rate, but this still translated to a 240% jump.
Banks will be hoping this trend reverses in the 2nd
Half of the year
Operational Efficiency
There was a drop in the Cost:Income ratio in 4 of The Top 5.
Stanchart’s drop was the steepest and now stands at 40.88%, the lowest among
the group.
Equity’s Cost:Income ratio meanwhile rose to 56.96% from
55.63%
Agency Banking
Nearly a quarter of banks in the country
have now undertaken agency banking. As at the end of June 2012, 10 banks had
contracted 12,054 agents compared to 6 banks that had contracted 6,513 agents
during the first half of 2011. This is an 85% rise in the number of agents
compared to the branch network by 94 branches or 8.5% to 1,196.
During its half year results presentation,
Equity Bank announced that it had more than doubled its number of agents to 5,004
from 2300. Their agents now handle 24% of bank transactions, up from 8%, with
the C.E.O Dr. James Mwangi projecting that agencies will overtake branches in
terms of transactions and volume of money, though he did not give a specific
timeframe.
CBK said that at the end of June, the
agency network facilitated 18.7 Million transactions valued at Kshs. 93 Billion
The Kenyan Economy
Monetary tightening over the past year led to the Kenyan
Shilling strengthening to 87.75 to 83.51 as at the end of June 2012. A drop in
crude prices to $95.65 from $107.95 coupled with good rains resulting in the
reduction of staple agricultural commodities led to inflation during the period
eased from 14.49% in June 2011 to 10.05% in June 2012. This subsequently fell
to 7.74%
This prompted CBK to cut the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 16.5%
from 18%. The Governments cost of borrowing also reduced during the period. The
91 Day Treasury Bill rate is now in the 12% range. In January 2012, it was past
the 20% mark. All eyes will be on CBK’s Monetary Policy Committee when they
meet on 5th September with anticipation whether we will see a
further cut in the CBR.
Granted, risks to the economy still exist. Since June 2012, the
price of crude has rallied past the $100 mark. Indeed, when announcing the
latest fuel prices, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) warned that rising
oil prices might lead to an increase in pump prices in the next review. Super petrol
is now at Kshs. 106.48 from a high of Kshs. 121.13 in May
Sectors such as horticulture and tourism still face
uncertainties owing to the Euro Crisis. The tourism industry is being hit by a
double blow as it is also reeling from travel advisories against travelling to
Kenya were issued in light of recent security threats that the country is
facing
Kenya’s economy grew by 3.5% in the first quarter, down from
5.1% a year earlier. This was the slowest growth since 2008. Fitch recently
affirmed the country’s Credit rating at B+ with a stable outlook. Kenya doubled
its planned Eurobond to 1 Billion Dollars with a tenor of 10 years set for the
2013/2014 fiscal year.
Valuations
|
Return on Equity
|
Return on Assets
|
Price/Book Ratio
|
Market Capitalisation
Kshs.
|
Forward Price:Earnings Ratio
|
Kenya Commercial Bank
|
26.2%
|
3.48%
|
1.59
|
73.7
BILLION
|
6.1
|
Equity Bank
|
30.18%
|
4.9%
|
2.2
|
79.6 BILLION
|
7.4
|
Standard Chartered Bank of Kenya
|
38.12%
|
4.82%
|
2.36
|
56.3
BILLION
|
6.2
|
Barclays Bank of Kenya
|
33.35%
|
5.05%
|
2.96
|
75.8
BILLION
|
8.8
|
Co-operative Bank of Kenya
|
30.96%
|
4.5%
|
1.47
|
38.4
BILLION
|
5.7
|
Note: All figures were arrived at using closing day data on Wednesday
15th August 2012. Price/Book Ratio figures include intangible assets
New Developments and Outlook for the Second Half
KCB’s rolled out a mobile banking platform (KCB Mobi) which is
not limited to any network. The bank also launched Diaspora Banking intended to
serve East Africans working and living in the diaspora.
A lot of players in the banking sector have announced plans
for raising capital. Stanchart has already begun the process of raising Kshs. 3.2
Billion in a rights issue. Several banks will be going through similar motions
in the months to come.
Diamond Trust Bank and NIC Bank are seeking to raise Kshs. 1.81
Billion and Kshs. 2.07 Billion respectively. Consolidated Bank earlier managed
to raise Kshs. 1.7 Billion in a bond offering
Banks are also positioning themselves to benefit from the
activities in Kenya’s nascent hydrocarbon industry. KCB has indicated that the
recent oil and gas discoveries may boost earnings by as much as 30%. Stanchart
was also reported to have scooped the account for Tullow Oil which is
prospecting for oil in the country
Co-op Bank is now the 4th Kenyan bank to have
operations in South Sudan, a move which makes it its first foray outside Kenya.
Co-op will take a 51% stake in the subsidiary in a joint venture with the
Government of South Sudan (G.O.S.S). The bank plans to open 5 branches in Juba
by December 2012. G.O.S.S will sell 11% of its stake after 3 years. According
to Central Bank of Kenya data, South Sudan accounted for 42% of the Kshs. 2.3
Billion shillings profit that was made by Kenyan banks outside Kenya.
Tabular Summaries of The Top 5’s Half Year
|
KENYA COMMERCIAL BANK GROUP
|
EQUITY BANK
GROUP
|
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK OF
KENYA
|
BARCLAYS BANK OF KENYA
|
THE CO-OPERATIVE BANK OF KENYA
|
TOTAL ASSETS
|
349.3
BILLION
|
220 BILLION
|
188.3 BILLION
|
168.9 BILLION
|
177.7 BILLION
|
NET LOANS AND ADVANCES
|
202.1
BILLION
|
124.5 BILLION
|
104 BILLION
|
101.1 BILLION
|
112.6 BILLION
|
CUSTOMER DEPOSITS
|
278.5
BILLION
|
151 BILLION
|
138.2 BILLION
|
122.5 BILLION
|
145.7 BILLION
|
LOAN:DEPOSIT RATIO
|
72.5%
|
82.4%
|
75.3%
|
82.5%
|
77.3%
|
TOTAL INTEREST INCOME
|
20.6
BILLION
|
14.9 BILLION
|
9.9 BILLION
|
10.6 BILLION
|
13 BILLION
|
TOTAL INTEREST EXPENSE
|
6.3
BILLION
|
3.6 BILLION
|
2.6 BILLION
|
1.7 BILLION
|
5.5
BILLION
|
NET INTEREST INCOME
|
14.3
BILLION
|
11.3 BILLION
|
7.3 BILLION
|
9 BILLION
|
7.4 BILLION
|
TOTAL OPERATING INCOME
|
21.9
BILLION
|
17.6 BILLION
|
11 BILLION
|
13.7 BILLION
|
11.5 BILLION
|
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSE
|
13.4
BILLION
|
10 BILLION
|
4.5 BILLION
|
7.4 BILLION
|
6.6 BILLION
|
NET NON PERFORMING LOANS
|
5
BILLION
|
1.1 BILLION
|
1.6 BILLION
|
971 MILLION
|
2.2 BILLION
|
PROFIT BEFORE TAX
|
8.5
BILLION
|
7.6 BILLION
|
6.5 BILLION
|
6.3 BILLION
|
5 BILLION
|
PROFIT AFTER TAX
|
6.1
BILLION
|
5.4 BILLION
|
4.5 BILLION
|
4.3 BILLION
|
4 BILLION
|
|
KENYA COMMERCIAL BANK GROUP
|
EQUITY BANK
GROUP
|
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK OF
KENYA
|
BARCLAYS BANK OF KENYA
|
THE CO-OPERATIVE BANK OF KENYA
|
TOTAL ASSETS
|
+24.9%
|
+28.3%
|
+22.8%
|
-4.5%
|
+7.8%
|
NET LOANS AND ADVANCES
|
+15.3%
|
+27.4%
|
+24.4%
|
+10.1%
|
+18.4%
|
CUSTOMER DEPOSITS
|
+29.1%
|
+21.9
|
+26.5%
|
-4.6%
|
+11.5%
|
LOAN:DEPOSIT
RATIO
|
-8.7%
|
+3.6%
|
-1.3%
|
+11%
|
+4.5%
|
TOTAL INTEREST INCOME
|
+136.9%
|
+78.8%
|
+96.7%
|
+36.2%
|
+78.4%
|
TOTAL INTEREST EXPENSE
|
+404.9%
|
+242.8%
|
+397.6%
|
+301.5%
|
+317.8%
|
NET INTEREST INCOME
|
+35.9%
|
+55.2%
|
+61.9%
|
+21.4%
|
+25%
|
TOTAL OPERATING INCOME
|
+29.8%
|
+33.5%
|
+54.2%
|
+9.7%
|
+23.1%
|
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSE
|
+20.3%
|
+36.7%
|
+22.7%
|
+3.5%
|
+24.8%
|
NET NON PERFORMING LOANS
|
-18.7%
|
-45.6%
|
+115.8%
|
+20.3%
|
+47.9%
|
PROFIT BEFORE TAX
|
+48.2%
|
+29.3%
|
+87.5%
|
+18.1%
|
+20.8%
|
PROFIT AFTER TAX
|
+50%
|
+14%
|
+81.5%
|
+17.2%
|
+22%
|
Disclaimer
The
information in this report originates from public sources that are deemed
reliable. This document does not constitute an offer, or
the solicitation of an offer, for the sale or purchase of any security. Whilst
every care has been taken in
preparing this document, no representation, warranty or undertaking is given
and no responsibility or liability is accepted by @kenyainvestor as to the
accuracy of the information contained and opinions expressed herein.