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"Freedom for Everybody or Freedom for Nobody"
Malcolm X

Saturday 16 April 2011

NSE DOWN FOR THE 1ST QUARTER 2011




The Nairobi Stock Exchange All Share Index (NASI) was slightly down 3.65%. The NASI ended the quarter at 94.37points from 97.82 points three months earlier.
The NSE 20 share index was down 14.03 percent in a quarter dominated by revolts in several Arab countries and an upsurge in the price of oil and other commodities. Investors were also jittery on 6 Kenyan suspects going to the Hague on 7th April where charges against them were expected to be read out

22 companies fell by more than 10 percent during this period. Of these, 7 listed firms fell by 20 percent or more in a show of decline of shareholders wealth.

Access Kenya led the drop with its share down 47% for the quarter. The company suffered a Ksh 7.9 million loss last year as mobile service providers entered Kenya's data market.
Sameer Africa was down 31.82%. The tyre maker's profits slumped 177 percent to Ksh 57 million from Ksh 158 million the previous year. The company did not issue a dividend to its shareholders. Sameer cited increased production costs for its dismal performance following sustained escalation in key raw material prices in the 2nd half of the year. The prices for synthetic and natural rubber surged during the year in operation. These two contribute 50% of material cost in a tyre.
In a surprising turn of events, Sasini Tea & Coffee fell 30 percent despite reporting an 82 percent jump in pretax profit to 1.4 billion shillings in resonance with the tea industry which earned Kenya 97 billion in 2010 to become Kenya's top Forex earner. Tea production is expected to fall this year, but prices will hold or edge up higher.
National carrier Kenya Airways was also down 30 percent to trade at 32.25 with investors fearing the climb in fuel prices will increase its operating costs. The share has since picked up slightly to close at 37.25 on Friday 15th April as a result of the news that the company had finally agreed a date for the delivery of Boeing planes in late 2013.
Mumias Sugar Company rounds up the top five losers of the first quarter. The share slipped 26% after its first half profit declined 22 percent as heavy rainfall hampered sugarcane deliveries.

At the other end of the spectrum, Pan Africa Insurance Holdings went up by 40 percent. Its profits surged 4 fold. Speculators drove up the share in anticipation of the 1:1 bonus the company had issued. The company also raised its dividend to 3 shillings
City Trust and Kapchorua Tea Company went up by 16.25% and 15% respectively.
Despite the cement price wars, East Africa Portland Cement managed to edge up 13.75%. The company is intent on reducing its energy costs which will enable it to be more competitive in pricing, in the wake of new entrants who have slashed prices of their products.
Kenya's largest bank by assets Kenya Commercial Bank went up by 8.05% on the back of 2010 full year results that defied investor expectations.

Telecom giant Safaricom was down 19.15% to 3.80/= as investors were apprehensive that the company would feel the heat from the price war initiated by Airtel Kenya. The share has since been stable at 4/= as it became evident that Mobile Number Portability is likely to have little or no effect on Safaricom due to Kenyans propensity to have multiple SIM cards. The company is focused on improving its network quality to retain its customers. Safaricom is also betting on data services to shore up revenues. It is yet to release its results.
East Africa Breweries was down 9.95% as new Alcohol Laws limited drinking hours. The company has recently announced an increase in the price of some of its brands. Shareholders have greeted this with optimism as it is expected to nullify the effect of the Alcohol Laws. The company closed on Friday 15th April at 200/= 

The drop in NSE led to investors collectively losing approximately 95 billion as the market capitalisation slumped to Ksh 984.98 Billion at 31st March 2011 compared to Ksh 1.08 Trillion on 31st December 2010.

Banks are expected to start reporting their Q1 results beginning from May. Stock Market enthusiasts are waiting with bated breath to see the effect that the increased inflation will have on their performance.
Personally, I feel the results will be very positive. The Central Bank had indicated that banks had lent more in January and February than they did for the entire 4th quarter. Ominous? I think so.

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